Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
